The key to our mid to late week weather forecast will be with powerful Pacific Hurricane Rick. Late last night, Rick had maximum sustained winds of 180mph... a category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale... and one of the strongest Pacific hurricanes this season! Rick continues to be very strong, but does remain away from land areas for now. The forecast track from the National Hurricane Center forecast does curve the storm toward the southern Baja by Wednesday, and to the west coast of Mexico on Thursday. Once inland on Thursday, the storm hits the mountains of Mexico and weakens... but the moisture from the storm begins streaming into Texas.

While the moisture begins increasing from the southwest from Rick mid to late week, a cold front and upper level storm approach Texas from the west at the same time. This upper level storm will help steer Rick's moisture across the central and southern parts of the state, boosting rain chances... and potentially bringing heavy rain. Right now, the best shot at seeing the heaviest rain looks to be east and south of Austin toward the coast, but there is plenty of uncertainty this early in the forecast cycle. Some computer forecast models are slower with this rain event, which could mean heavier rain with higher totals, while others show the rain ending more quickly. Right now, the best shot at rain for our area is late Wednesday through early Friday... but this could change... stay tuned! Here is the late week rainfall forecast from the National Weather Service:

The current forecast shows one to one and a half inches of rain for our area Wednesday through Friday morning. Again... we could see much more, or less, depending on how long the upper level storm system takes to move across the state.

Keep an eye on the forecast this week!

Scott Prinsen